Tuesday 8 January 2013

What have we achieved?

In September 1996, there was an uprising in Afghanistan and a group of former Mujahedeen called the Taliban seized the capital, Kabul. Once they had done this , they formed the Government of the Islamic State of Afghanistan and moved the capital to Kandahar in the south of the country, a city that had been the traditional Pashtun seat of power for more than 200 years.

Once in power, the Taliban proceeded to turn their Islamic State into something from the middle ages, with a very strict, and some would say distorted, view of Sharia Law. banning things such as music, television and insisting that all men must have a beard.

However, their oppression of women was the issue that seemed to attract the most media attention. Women were banned from receiving an education and were not permitted to leave their homes unless accompanied by a male relative. When they did leave their homes, they were required to be completely covered by a burqa. Failure to comply with these edicts could result in the woman concerned being publicly beaten. More serious crimes, for both sexes, could result in public executions, which often took place in football stadiums, as football, along with just about every other form of entertainment, had been banned by the Taliban.

Whilst the regime's actions drew a lot of condemnation from just about every Government, other than those of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, as well as from just about every NGO, very little was actually done about it. However, that was to change very dramatically in late-2001.

When the Taliban seized power, Osama bin Laden, who had fought as a Mujahid during the Soviet occupation, moved from Sudan to Afghanistan, with many of his al-Qaeda fighters forming part of the new Taliban army. The Taliban gave refuge to bin Laden, who was wanted in the United States in connection with attacks on US Embassies in Africa.

However, the final straw was the fact that bin Laden was sheltered by the Taliban following the September 2011 attacks in the United States. Having refused to agree to the demands that bin Laden be handed over to US authorities, the Taliban found themselves under attack, initially from the air but, very shortly after, also from ground troops.

The first British troops were involved almost from day one, and since that time, 438 British Servicemen and Servicewomen have died in that country, the latest, a Royal Engineer having been killed yesterday in yet another green on blue attack.

As the international involvement in Afghanistan draws to a close, the plan being that foreign troops will have left by the end of next year, what will happen?

What I think will happen is that the fiercely tribal Afghans, who seem apathetic when it comes to helping themselves, will carry on as they always have, giving the motivated, if extremist, Taliban the opportunity to move back in and impose their regime once again. In fact, I predict that within two years of the last NATO soldier, sailor or airman leaving Afghanistan, the women will be back in their houses with their blacked out windows so that people cannot see them from outside, men will have their beards and head coverings and  public executions will be the only form of entertainment for to the population.

In fact, I expect that the regime will be far more extreme than previous, knowing full well that the West will not want to get embroiled in another costly conflict.

So, just over 11 years after the Taliban was overthrown, what have we achieved?

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